The Friday Intelligence Briefing
Plain · Sourced · Every FridayVictoria started 16,239 homes in the June quarter and national starts rose 7.0%, while annual completions in Victoria barely changed. The state's building contract reforms must now start by 31 March 2027, not 1 December 2026. This week's Feature shows what a BuilderHQ cost estimate contains.
By BuilderHQ, Melbourne
Our estimating team prepares each estimate from the project's drawings. It gives a low, most likely and high total, a trade-by-trade breakdown and the assumptions behind the figures.
Architects and designers can request one for a client. Builders can request one for a job they are pricing. Homeowners can add one to their tender.
This week from the BuilderHQ team
Victoria had its strongest quarter of housing starts since March 2023, while completions over the year barely moved. More homes are now under construction at once. That affects anyone waiting on trades, inspections or a handover.
We also have a correction. Four earlier editions said Victoria's building contract reforms would start by 1 December 2026. The latest start date is now 31 March 2027. Market Watch 02 sets out which rules apply in the meantime.
Market Watch 03 looks at the 5% Deposit Scheme and what the Reserve Bank says about negative equity. The Feature shows what a BuilderHQ cost estimate contains.
The BuilderHQ Team
Three signals this week.
01 · The Pipeline
16,239
homes started in Victoria in the June quarter, seasonally adjusted
the most since March 2023
Rolling 12-month totals of seasonally adjusted ABS data, summed by the Property Council of Australia. Before seasonal adjustment, completions fell slightly. The June figures are preliminary and will be revised on 13 January 2027. The axis starts at zero.
| Series | Homes |
|---|---|
| Starts, Year to June 2025 | 55,958 |
| Starts, Year to June 2026 | 57,551 |
| Completions, Year to June 2025 | 56,296 |
| Completions, Year to June 2026 | 56,303 |
Seasonally adjusted, the June quarter was Victoria's strongest for housing starts since March 2023. Victoria accounted for about 31% of all homes started in Australia.
Completions barely changed. Victoria completed 56,303 homes in the 12 months to June, against 56,296 in the 12 months before. With starts rising and completions flat, more homes are under construction at once.
Nationally, starts rose 7.0% to 52,201, led by an 11.6% rise in private house starts. Private starts of apartments, townhouses and other attached homes were flat, down 0.1%. Across Australia, 248,733 homes were under construction at the end of June.
The stronger quarter does not settle concerns about the years ahead. On 1 October, Master Builders Australia cut its forecast to fewer than 920,000 starts over the five years to 2030-31, 8.4% below its March forecast. The June figures also predate the Reserve Bank's 29 September rate rise, its fourth this year, which took the cash rate to 4.60%.
What this means for you
Ask your builder how many jobs they are running at once, and allow for that in your timeline.
Allow for longer contract administration on projects starting now, while more homes are under construction.
The June figures predate the latest rate rise. Price new tenders on current demand, not on June's.
Longer builds keep construction loans in drawdown for longer. Allow for that when you set facility terms.
Source: ABS, Building Activity, Australia, June 2026 (7 October 2026) · Property Council of Australia (7 October 2026) · Master Builders Australia (1 October 2026) · Reserve Bank of Australia (29 September 2026).
02 · The Rules
31 Mar 2027
latest start date for Victoria's domestic building contract reforms
previously 1 December 2026
The dates
Earlier editions of The Build Brief reported that these reforms would start by 1 December 2026. That date has changed. The correction is at the foot of this edition.
The Consumer Legislation Amendment Act 2026, passed in September, moved the latest start date for the Domestic Building Contracts Amendment Act 2025 to 31 March 2027. The reforms could start earlier if the government proclaims an earlier date, but its published timeline gives 31 March 2027 for both the Act and the new deposit and progress payment regulations.
What applies now. The contract changes apply only to contracts signed on or after they start. Until then, the current rules apply, including deposit caps of 10% for contracts under $20,000 and 5% for contracts of $20,000 or more.
The caretaker period before the state election, when the government generally defers major decisions, is expected to begin at 6pm on Tuesday 3 November.
| Series | Signed on or after they start |
|---|---|
| Deposit: Signed before the reforms start | 10% under $20,000, 5% at $20,000 and over / Signed on or after they start: Proposed caps of 10%, 15% or 20%, by offsite share |
| Progress payments: Signed before the reforms start | Current stages / Signed on or after they start: Proposed new stages, including site preparation |
| Major contract threshold: Signed before the reforms start | $10,000 / Signed on or after they start: Proposed $20,000 |
| Variations: Signed before the reforms start | Current process / Signed on or after they start: One process, set in the Act |
What this means for you
A contract signed before the reforms start stays under the current rules, including the 5% deposit cap on contracts of $20,000 or more.
For clients planning a modular or prefabricated build, the deposit and payment rules will depend on when they sign.
Plan contract template and cash flow changes for 31 March 2027, and watch for an earlier proclamation.
Contracts signed before the reforms start keep the current payment stages, so their drawdown schedules will not change.
Source: Engage Victoria, Clearer and fairer domestic building contracts · Consumer Legislation Amendment Act 2026 (Vic) · Domestic Building Contracts Amendment Act 2025 (Vic) · Victorian Government, 2026 caretaker conventions · Consumer Affairs Victoria.
03 · The Buffer
33,413
of them in Victoria, about a third of the national total
102,594 nationally
Home values, Cotality index
The 5% Deposit Scheme was expanded on 1 October 2025. In its first year, 102,594 first home buyers used it, according to Housing Australia figures released by the Government on 1 October.
That is a large group of buyers entering the market with small deposits while home values ease.
The Reserve Bank estimates that fewer than 1% of mortgage borrowers owe more than their home is worth, known as negative equity. In a scenario where prices fell a further 20% across the board, it estimates about 5% of mortgages would. That is a stress test, not a forecast.
The Bank notes that recent buyers and borrowers with smaller deposits are more likely than others to be in negative equity.
For anyone building, the valuation at completion matters. A construction loan is usually valued "as if complete", so softer sales during the build can mean a lower final valuation. A small deposit leaves less room to absorb it.
The figures cover all mortgages, not only buyers in the scheme.
| Series | Share |
|---|---|
| of mortgage borrowers in negative equity now | Under 1% |
| of mortgages in a scenario where prices fell a further 20% | About 5% |
What this means for you
Building on a small deposit? Ask your lender when the final valuation happens, and what happens if it comes in lower.
First home buyer clients have little room for cost growth. Test the budget with an estimate before the design is fixed.
Clear inclusions and firm prices matter most to buyers with small deposits, who have the least room for variations.
For low-deposit construction clients, model the equity position at completion as well as repayment capacity.
Source: Prime Minister and Minister for Housing, joint release, 1 October 2026 (Housing Australia data) · Reserve Bank of Australia, Financial Stability Review, October 2026 · Cotality, Home Value Index, 1 October 2026.
A preliminary estimate, prepared from the drawings before builders price the project.
"What will it cost?" is usually asked before anyone has priced the drawings. A cost estimate gives an answer while the design can still change, and a figure to check builders' prices against when they arrive.
Each estimate gives a Low, Most Likely and High total. The Most Likely figure is the one to budget and finance against. Low assumes favourable site conditions. High allows for higher site, authority and finish costs.
Our example covers three double-storey townhouses in Melbourne, 683 m² in total. Its Most Likely figure works out at $2,967 per m² before GST. Our estimates have an average expected accuracy of about plus or minus 10%.
Three townhouses, 683 m² of floor area including garages. Before GST, the totals are $1,612,900, $2,026,200 and $2,600,400.
| Series | Total including GST |
|---|---|
| Low | $1,774,190 |
| Most Likely | $2,228,820 |
| High | $2,860,440 |
The example lists 25 trades, each with a low, most likely and high amount, and the lines add up exactly to the totals. Prime cost items and provisional sums, the allowances for items not yet chosen or measured, sit inside those lines rather than on top.
The example runs to 17 pages.
An estimator from our team works through the drawings. Floor plans and elevations are enough to start. Questions come through the request page, and the expected date is shown before the request is sent.
It is not a quote, a tender or a cost plan. Builders' prices will vary with the final documents, site conditions, the market and the contract.
What this means for you
Use the estimate's Most Likely figure as a check on the tender prices you receive.
Cost the design while it can still change, then take the same project to tender. See BuilderHQ for architects and designers.
An estimate on a job you are pricing gives a trade-by-trade check on your own take-off before you submit.
A Low, Most Likely and High range gives an early figure to test borrowing capacity against, before a builder's price arrives.
Source: BuilderHQ, October 2026 · BuilderHQ example estimate.
Building design & Town planning · Camberwell, VIC · In the network since 2026
Building design and planning practice · Camberwell, VIC
4.9
Google rating, 72 reviews
1,800+
Projects completed
40+ yrs
In Melbourne
Why we introduce them
SilverPoint handles building design and town planning in one office, so each design is shaped around what the council is likely to approve.
The practice
A Camberwell practice that has worked across Melbourne for more than 40 years. It designs new homes, extensions, dual occupancies and townhouses, and prepares planning applications and subdivisions.
A practice that carries a project from the first design to builder selection is one we want in front of people planning a build.
The project
A growing family needed more room without moving.
The family had outgrown their Sandringham home, but with the children settled at school, moving was not an option. The site left little room to build out, so SilverPoint designed a first floor above the existing house.
The new floor follows the style of the original home, so it reads as part of the house rather than an addition.
Read the case study on SilverPointThe ATO will stop accepting credit cards after 30 November 2026. Debit cards are still accepted. If a payment plan is paid by direct debit from a credit card, change the payment method before the first instalment due after 30 November. The September-quarter BAS is the last quarterly BAS that can be paid directly by credit card.
Planning Victoria has said applications for up to four homes on a lot would be assessed in 10 business days from October. As of 9 October, that change has not taken legal effect and has no start date. Separately, Amendment VC315 took effect on 24 September. It refines the Single Home Code, the Townhouse and Low-Rise Code and the Mid-Rise Code, including the tree canopy and stormwater standards. Check designs prepared before then against the updated codes.
Issues 002, 006, 007 and 012 reported that Victoria's domestic building contract reforms would start by 1 December 2026. That date has changed. The reforms must now start by 31 March 2027, and the Victorian Government's timeline gives that date for both the Domestic Building Contracts Amendment Act 2025 and the new deposit and progress payment regulations.
This edition used data and reporting from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Property Council of Australia, Master Builders Australia, the Victorian Government, Consumer Affairs Victoria, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Prime Minister and the Minister for Housing, Housing Australia, Cotality and the Australian Taxation Office. The Build Brief is compiled by BuilderHQ, Melbourne.
Reply with a line. The topics readers ask about most shape where we take future editions.
Reply to the teamVictoria's housing starts reached their highest level since March 2023, while annual completions barely changed. Victoria's building contract reforms must now start by 31 March 2027. And what a BuilderHQ cost estimate contains. This week's Build Brief.
The Build Brief is compiled by BuilderHQ, Melbourne. Read past editions at builderhq.com.au/build-brief.
